In light of geopolitical tensions and growing international divisions – including the US administration's renewed rejection of international climate agreements – the 30th World Climate Conference (Conference of the Parties, COP30) is under particular pressure to deliver: The conference must prove that ambitious climate protection remains possible even without the US, as researchers at the Wuppertal Institute emphasise. 

Without further resolute climate protection measures, the world is heading for global warming of 2.8 degrees Celsius – and is likely to exceed the 1.5-degree target soon, even on a multi-decade average, as the United Nations urgently warns in its Emissions Gap Report 2025. To prevent climate protection targets from being postponed even further into the future, the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of the contracting parties play a particularly important role. All countries should submit new NDCs for the period up to 2035 in the first half of this year that are more ambitious than their previous commitments. However, many countries – including the EU – have missed the deadline for setting their climate targets, as the UNFCCC Secretariat pointed out in its latest Synthesis Report 2025 on NDCs.

This week, EU environment ministers met in Brussels to agree on a last-minute climate target for 2040 and derive their 2035 NDCs from it, mere days before COP30 starts in Belém. However, this was a close call, and until the very last minute it was unclear whether the EU would arrive in Belém empty-handed. On Wednesday, the ministers agreed to reduce emissions by 90 per cent by 2040 compared to 1990 levels – and for 2035, a target range of 66.25 to 72.5 per cent was set. After lengthy negotiations, the EU member states also agreed that up to 5 per cent of the reduction target can be covered by purchasing international climate protection certificates. In addition, emissions trading for transport and buildings will not be introduced in 2027, but one year later.
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Manfred Fischedick, President and Scientific Director of the Wuppertal Institute, warned at the start of the negotiations in Brussels on WDR 5 Mittagsecho (German): "The struggle to reach this crucial agreement so close to the COP puts the EU's credibility at risk. Only with an ambitious and clear goal that leaves no loopholes can the EU realise its ambition to take a political leadership role in the negotiations at the World Climate Conference."

According to Fischedick, the decisions now taken by the EU will not achieve this objective – and will significantly undermine the EU's image as a climate protection pioneer, as they do not send the signal of change and responsibility sorely needed in these politically uncertain times. 

Overall, it is crucial for the international community to adhere to the Paris Agreement more resolutely than ever, without the support of the US – if not in spite open opposition – and to ramp up the implementation of climate protection measures. However, given that Belém is one of the hottest and poorest cities in the country, the conference also offers a great opportunity to tackle the climate and biodiversity crises in tandem, so that integrated solutions can deliver a lasting impact. 

Structural change: the just transition also plays a decisive role

In addition, the issue of fair structural change – known as the just transition – could be given greater prominence in this year's COP negotiations. Following progress in the interim negotiations in Bonn, there is growing hope for the development of a holistic mechanism that anchors aspects of fairness as the basis for ambitious climate protection. To date, the just transition has played only a minor role. Although it was already established in 2015 as a central guideline in the preamble to the Paris Agreement, it was not until COP27 in November 2022 that a decisive breakthrough was achieved with the establishment of the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP). 

This is precisely why we now need ideas on how climate protection and socially just change can be cleverly combined, sums up Timon Wehnert, Co-Head of the International Energy Transitions Research Unit at the Wuppertal Institute, who attended the political dialogue of the EU Initiative for Coal Regions in Transition this summer. As one of the biggest climate change drivers, the coal sector is under mounting pressure to transform – not least due to the sustained increase in the profitability of renewables. The coal sector is also one of the first to show concrete progress: In the EU, some countries completely phased out coal-fired power generation years ago. It has become clear that a sustainable transformation of these regions can only be achieved by involving workers and the local population. The CRiT initiative has compiled the experiences from these processes in practical manuals and case studies in order to further support coal regions in their transition away from fossil fuels.

Wuppertal Institute presence at COP30

Next Monday marks the beginning of the World Climate Conference, and researchers from the Wuppertal Institute will be accompanying the negotiations on site and hosting several side events. Shortly after the conference concludes, they will publish an initial evaluation of the results. On 4 December, they will present their findings at a digital Wuppertal Lunch, organised in cooperation with Table.Briefings, and discuss them with experts. 

The Wuppertal Institute and the University of Bremen will work even more closely together to advance the sustainability transformation with their research and to train urgently needed specialists. This was certified in a collaboration agreement signed on August 22.

From 10 to 21 November 2025, the 30th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30) will take place in Belém, Brazil. In view of geopolitical tensions and growing international divisions – including the US administration's renewed opposition to international climate agreements – COP30 is under particular pressure. The conference must prove that ambitious climate protection remains possible even without the US.

In a comparative study, Christof Arens and Juliane Schell from the Global Climate Governance Research Unit at the Wuppertal Institute examined the extent to which the new Sustainable Development Tool (SD Tool) under Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement sets a new benchmark for assessing the sustainability impacts of market-based climate protection measures.

The policy paper "On the way to net-zero? How German SBTi companies address their residual emissions through carbon dioxide removals" by Nicolas Kreibich and Max Erik Schulze-Steinen from the Global Climate Governance Research Unit at the Wuppertal Institute, explores how German companies with validated net-zero targets plan to neutralise their residual emissions.

In two articles on environmental justice and sufficiency, Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Sachs, Senior Expert at the Wuppertal Institute, encourages readers to reflect on the ethical, social and ecological challenges of the Anthropocene. The articles have been published in the Handbook of the Anthropocene and are now available in open access.

The latest issue of the Carbon Mechanisms Review tackles the integrity debate on carbon market mechanisms from two different angles. In the cover feature, the issue presents the first article of a new series focused on establishing good practice for the market mechanisms under the Paris Agreement as a whole.

The "Refurbished over New: A Second Chance for Smartphones" study, commissioned by the Vodafone Institute and scientifically supported by the Wuppertal Institute, shows that there is great potential but little uptake of refurbished smartphone offerings. The results reveal a field of tension: although large sections of the population are aware of this potential, German smartphone users make sparing use of these offerings. In a comparison of the five European countries considered – Germany, France, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom –, Germany brings up the rear at last place. The study also highlights the purchasing behaviour of different generations and shows drivers and barriers for the use or non-use of refurbished offers.

Dr. Lukas Hermwille, Co-Head of the Transformative Industrial Policy Research Unit at the Wuppertal Institute, argues in his statement that any softening of European emissions trading would backfire, as he sees Europe's strength in transformation, not in competition with economic regions driven by cheap fossil fuels.

Reliable digital data is the foundation for a sustainable and functioning circular economy. Despite this fundamental necessity, the global transition to sustainability is hampered by the problem of data fragmentation. This is precisely where the current “Blueprint for a Global DPIS (Digital Product Information Systems) Framework” comes in, which was developed in collaboration with 10YFP One Planet Network and the Wuppertal Institute, with the participation of the Life Cycle Initiative.

10-21 November 2025 in Belém (Brazil)

During the World Climate Conference in Belém, researchers from the Wuppertal Institute are organising a series of side events to present their research projects and findings and to promote exchange with delegates and partners in the field.